Análisis Montecarlo vs Herrera
Resultados posibles
Probabilidad de cada resultado exacto
Probabilidad del hándicap
46.8%
Probabilidad de victoria
1.76
Goles esperados
7-0
<0%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
1.8%
5-1
0.8%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.8%
3-0
4%
4-1
2.4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
7%
2-0
6.8%
3-1
5.4%
4-2
1.6%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.2%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.6%
23.3%
Empate
0-0
4.4%
1-1
10.6%
2-2
6.3%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.3%
29.9%
Probabilidad de victoria
1.36
Goles esperados
0-1
6%
1-2
7.2%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
16.8%
0-2
4.1%
1-3
3.3%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
8.5%
0-3
1.9%
1-4
1.1%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.6%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
Gráfica ELO/Inclinación
← Defensivo
Tilt
Ofensivo →
-5%
+8%
Progresión del ELO
Rivales próximos en puntos de ELO
Partidos
Montecarlo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 abr. 2025 |
SPO
2 - 3
UDM
20%
20%
61%
|
20 | 13 | 7 | 0 |
| 13 abr. 2025 |
UDM
2 - 0
ATC
15%
20%
66%
|
18 | 29 | 11 | +2 |
| 06 abr. 2025 |
MAL
3 - 1
UDM
48%
24%
29%
|
18 | 21 | 3 | 0 |
| 30 mar. 2025 |
UDM
0 - 2
ICF
16%
21%
63%
|
19 | 31 | 12 | -1 |
| 23 mar. 2025 |
PRA
1 - 2
UDM
68%
17%
15%
|
18 | 22 | 4 | +1 |
Partidos
Herrera
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 abr. 2025 |
HER
2 - 0
SDB
38%
25%
37%
|
19 | 23 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 abr. 2025 |
HER
0 - 0
PRA
32%
22%
47%
|
18 | 22 | 4 | +1 |
| 13 abr. 2025 |
HER
3 - 0
SPO
72%
16%
12%
|
18 | 14 | 4 | 0 |
| 06 abr. 2025 |
ATC
3 - 1
HER
75%
16%
9%
|
18 | 29 | 11 | 0 |
| 30 mar. 2025 |
HER
4 - 4
MAL
37%
23%
41%
|
18 | 21 | 3 | 0 |